← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 21% | 18% | 4.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1566.94 | 1515.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.34 | -5.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |