← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 63% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | 5.79 | value: +28% |
| Boavista win | 7% | 15% | 13.95 | value: +108% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 875.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1459.37 | 1848.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.32 | -4.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| league points | 21.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |