← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.03 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 19% | 15% | 5.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1760.71 | 1642.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.29 | -6.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 67.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.76 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |