← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 22% | 21% | 4.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1538.71 | 1480.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.00 | -6.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 38.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.10 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |