← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 39% | 35% | 2.47 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 32% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.45 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1423.23 | 1612.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.26 | 24.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |