← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 37% | 46% | 2.65 | value: +21% |
| Olhanense win | 36% | 30% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1523.15 | 1433.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.29 | 17.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 36.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |