← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.04 | value: +5% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 20% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 343.00 | 1774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1867.72 | 1922.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.14 | 1.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| league points | 58.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.55 |
| state index | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |