← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.94 | 1594.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.11 | -7.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| state index | -1.16 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |