← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 68% | 54% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.56 | value: +9% |
| FC Arouca win | 11% | 22% | 8.75 | value: +92% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1451.16 | 1499.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.70 | 19.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |