← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 60% | 48% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.12 | value: +20% |
| Maritimo win | 16% | 23% | 5.94 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 337.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1620.11 | 1556.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | -4.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 36.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |