← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 52% | 45% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.67 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 21% | 33% | 4.63 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 672.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1483.05 | 1470.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | -19.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.82 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |