← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 35% | 30% | 2.78 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 25% | 26% | 3.96 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 337.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1491.90 | 1452.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.40 | -7.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |