← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 77.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.60 | 1593.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.13 | -5.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |