← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 61% | 66% | 1.61 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.78 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 14% | 12% | 7.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 49.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.58 | 1758.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.63 | 39.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 24.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.33 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |