← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Mon, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 55% | 62% | 1.78 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.67 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 19% | 17% | 5.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1647.88 | 1514.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.92 | -4.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |