← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 45% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 26% | 20% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1629.14 | 1875.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.00 | -23.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 35.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.59 | 1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |