← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 78% | 77% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.49 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 7% | 9% | 14.50 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 1747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.09 | 1926.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | 19.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 2.58 |
| state index | -0.27 | 2.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |