← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 47% | 61% | 2.07 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 23% | 17% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1521.87 | 1401.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.90 | -22.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.69 |
| state index | 0.10 | -1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |