← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 42% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 27% | 38% | 3.62 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 42.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.74 | 1534.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.73 | -44.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |