← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
| Setubal win | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.21 | 1511.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.38 | 35.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |