← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 38% | 27% | 2.54 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 32% | 47% | 3.01 | value: +42% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.04 | 1625.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.85 | -8.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |