← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 49% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 23% | 23% | 4.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1549.91 | 1488.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.89 | -16.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |