← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 60% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 16% | 17% | 6.20 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 545.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1609.53 | 1888.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.45 | -34.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 35.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.04 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |