← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 49% | 59% | 1.99 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.34 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 22% | 16% | 4.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 637.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1649.18 | 1509.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.58 | 10.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |