← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 34% | 33% | 2.83 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 34% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 37% | 3.06 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 27.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.46 | 1523.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.43 | 1.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |