← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Mon, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| Setubal win | 25% | 20% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1496.18 | 1651.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.48 | 35.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.83 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |