← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 45% | 44% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1512.11 | 1491.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.96 | -6.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |