← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 50% | 57% | 1.94 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.45 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 21% | 21% | 4.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1412.60 | 1613.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.30 | -24.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| league points | 17.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |