← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 78% | 85% | 1.26 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 17% | 9% | 5.88 | fair |
| Academica win | 6% | 6% | 16.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1726.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1918.12 | 1509.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.24 | 27.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 58.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.26 |
| state index | 1.98 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |