← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 19% | 18% | 5.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.36 | 1459.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.21 | 8.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |