← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 55% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.65 | value: +9% |
| Olhanense win | 18% | 21% | 5.32 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1481.43 | 1422.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.28 | 1.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |