← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 21% | 20% | 4.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1569.97 | 1498.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.26 | -30.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |