← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 58% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 16% | 17% | 6.09 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 622.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1645.65 | 1567.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.32 | 4.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 39.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |