← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 83% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 7.82 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 5% | 8% | 19.61 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1899.20 | 1483.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.57 | -7.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 0.90 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |