← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 20% | 18% | 4.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 36.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1518.80 | 1450.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.77 | -0.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |