← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 36% | 29% | 2.73 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 41% | 3.03 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1424.14 | 1432.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.41 | -1.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |