← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 40% | 2.56 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 29.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.35 | 1573.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.10 | 26.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 13.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |