← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Mon, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 86% | 1.28 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.30 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 9% | 5% | 11.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1699.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1904.11 | 1574.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.09 | -20.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.53 |
| state index | 1.93 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |