← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 36% | 29% | 2.72 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 46% | 3.01 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1399.46 | 1427.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.62 | -15.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.82 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |