← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 69% | 65% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.57 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 10% | 12% | 9.60 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 266.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1629.95 | 1500.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.44 | 14.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |