← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.76 | value: +6% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 12% | 13% | 8.43 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 1691.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1526.07 | 1899.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.96 | 19.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 13.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 2.39 |
| state index | -0.12 | 1.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |