← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 78% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 5.92 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 8% | 9% | 12.18 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1451.63 | 1921.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.46 | -27.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 19.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.17 |
| state index | -1.16 | 1.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |