← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 36% | 40% | 2.68 | value: +7% |
| FC Arouca win | 34% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 260.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1497.74 | 1638.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.83 | 26.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| league points | 17.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.72 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |