← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +8% |
| Academica win | 31% | 24% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1233.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.48 | 1482.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.22 | 12.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |