← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Tue, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 56% | 64% | 1.74 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.92 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 19% | 12% | 5.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1686.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1893.77 | 1716.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.03 | -2.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 2.24 |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |