← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 21% | 23% | 4.55 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 588.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1507.23 | 1495.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.44 | 18.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |