← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 50% | 49% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.34 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 21% | 26% | 4.62 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1399.58 | 1540.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.81 | 16.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |