← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Wed, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 62% | 58% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 14% | 16% | 7.01 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1519.57 | 1430.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.09 | -11.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |