← Primeira Liga 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 75% | 75% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.47 | value: +6% |
| Academica win | 7% | 6% | 14.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1723.74 | 1483.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.34 | 5.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.31 |
| state index | 1.28 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |