← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.10 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 8% | 12% | 11.65 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 352.00 | 718.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1602.09 | 1937.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.95 | 19.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 54.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 2.59 |
| state index | 0.59 | 2.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |